Full-text from the report can be found at the bottom of this introduction and on the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung website.
In our empirical exploration, a collaborative venture with the esteemed Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, we delve into the intricate nexus between climate dynamics and artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) in the SADC region, with a particular focus on Tanzania’s gold sector. Drawing from the institutional lens, we seek to uncover the nuanced interplay between climate-induced hazards and the existing institutional framework governing ASM activities. This analysis aims to discern the hidden structures shaping the adaptive strategies and outcomes within this socio-economic ecosystem.
Institutional Foundations: Rooted in the broader context of the global extractive industries, our research contemplates the institutional foundations underpinning mining operations. Despite a diminishing share of global GDP, the extractive sector remains a central player in shaping economic trajectories and, notably, in contributing to the escalating specter of greenhouse gas emissions. Our inquiry aligns with prevailing global initiatives such as the Paris Agreement and SDG 13, seeking to discern the intricate dynamics of institutional responses within the extractive tapestry.
Climate Dynamics and Extractive Resilience: Our study invokes the spirit of institutional resilience as it navigates the intricate landscape of climate change impacts on mining operations. The extractive sector, positioned in climate-sensitive ecosystems, grapples with the direct and indirect consequences of climatic perturbations. From supply chain disruptions to intensified resource competition, the research confronts the adaptive capacities of institutional arrangements governing mining endeavors.
ASM and the Unseen Hand: Unlike the prevailing discourse that predominantly focuses on the climate change implications for large-scale mining, our research bridges an intellectual chasm by scrutinizing the often-overlooked artisanal and small-scale mining sector. In the African context, where ASM employs approximately 9 million individuals, we shed light on the unseen hand of institutional structures governing the intricate interplay between climate dynamics and the resilience of ASM.
Tanzania’s Gold Sector, Institutional Resilience Under Stress: Our analytical journey centers on Tanzania’s ASM sector, scrutinizing the institutional tapestry that weaves together climate challenges and adaptive strategies. A bastion of economic contribution, the ASGM sector in Tanzania faces a formidable array of climate stressors, from temperature fluctuations impacting labor dynamics to precipitation shifts triggering flooding and drought episodes.
A Comprehensive Mapping: Our research methodically employs a comprehensive framework steeped in institutional analysis to chart the potential impacts of climate change on ASGM in Tanzania. The meticulous mapping extends from on-site repercussions affecting working conditions to the broader off-site consequences influencing mining operations and the surrounding communities.
Unraveling Job Losses: A seminal contribution of our study lies in the empirical estimation of climate change-induced job losses within Tanzania’s ASGM sector. By harnessing institutional insights and modeling the intricate interplay of climate-induced heat stress on working hours, we project substantial job losses. These findings offer policymakers a nuanced understanding to craft interventions and fortify the institutional fabric of the ASM sector.
Estimated impact of heat stress on Tanzania’s ASGM workers in 2030
Total job losses in ASGM (1.12%) | Lost Wages (in USD) | |
Scenario 1 (with shade) | 11,062 | 10,885,126 – 14,601,998 |
Scenario 2 (without shade) | 22,124 | 21,770,016 – 29,203,996 |
Conclusion: As we traverse the complex terrain of climate change and artisanal mining, our research advances the argument for an institutional recalibration in the face of evolving climatic challenges. By decoding the hidden structures and adaptive responses, we lay the foundation for a resilient ASM sector in Tanzania, affirming the enduring influence of institutions in shaping economic trajectories amidst climate uncertainties.